Extreme solar flares: the forecast risk.

Much can be said about the Sun. There is no doubt that the sun - the source of life. That gave life, and it may take. It happens. Can our Sun to be dangerous for us in the foreseeable future?

The sun has a magnetic field. The interaction of the substance of the plasma and the local magnetic fields and gives rise to the phenomenon known as solar activity. This is - sunspots, flares, solar wind disturbances. Solar flare - an explosive process, which results in the release of enormous energy in the atmosphere of the Sun - and light, and thermal and kinetic - billions of megatons.

Classification of solar flares.
The accepted classification of solar flares based on the intensity of the peak X-ray radiation (W / m 2 ) categories of outbreaks identified in the Latin alphabet: A, B, C, M, X. Each of the following letter indicates the increase in power of ten. Outbreaks of category X - the most powerful, characterized by the intensity of the peak (W / m 2 ) greater than 10 -4 . This category flashes can explicitly influence what happens on planet Earth.

Flash creates a wave solar radiation, which travels at the speed of light and reaches the Earth in 8 minutes. This is - in the range of electromagnetic radiation from radio to X-rays. But more powerful flash is accompanied by a coronal mass ejection, and that if the fly in the "right" direction to reach Earth in about 4 days. This is - a stream of particles: protons, electrons, and a certain amount of heavier elements: iron, helium, oxygen.



The flow of solar material causes the magnetic field perturbations of the Earth and is laying a strong DC. The ionosphere is literally bursting at the same time on electricity - then we see the northern lights. Further streams of charged particles go through the atmosphere and it is induced by electric fields. If these currents fall into the power system network are overloaded, burn out transformers, blackouts may occur and cascades of accidents. So, in 1989, a powerful solar flare was destroyed power grid in Quebec.

The flow of high-energy protons is dangerous to electronic equipment: satellite, aircraft navigation equipment: are local electrical disturbances, or a particle interacting with the material chips are converted into neutrons or alpha particles, which also cause malfunctions of the equipment.



The strongest of the people of solar storms recorded was in 1859. This forces the storm, as scientists have found on indirect data (nitrate in polar ice), occur about once every 500 years. Then the only crazy scientific instruments, retaining Earth's magnetic field, and broke down the telegraph. But for modern man, which was released not only on the radio, but also in space, the consequences of such a storm would be catastrophic: the planet can remain for several months without electricity.

According to public data for monitoring solar activity from 1976 to 2006, during this period discovered about three series of dozens of flares of class X X9 capacity and above.



Next after the 2006 X-class flare was registered in February 2011: came into its own once the 11-year cycle of solar activity, the peak of which we are now approaching.



However, there are also two centuries of solar cycles, and now the sun is at its peak at the same time small, but a large decline in the cycle. The projected rise in solar activity cycle, the 24th must be less than the previous, 23rd, and large disasters is not assumed. However, space weather is in roughly the same stage, in what was an ordinary, earthly weather decades ago. Gradually, scientists in orbit new equipment for observing the Sun and in the future, hoping to learn and predict a strong flash in time to protect the equipment and disconnect power.

Could it be worse? Can a plasma stream to hit the planet, so that will burn all life on it? Our Sun - an elderly star. Once upon a time it had a much more rapid period of rotation, a powerful magnetic field and high activity. Currently solar activity is low. It rotates slowly, slowly is the convection of plasma flows, which is a major contributor to the formation of the solar magnetic fields. The evolution of stars - a very slow process, and scientists believe it virtually impossible a serious change in the activity of the Sun in our time.

The recent events.

At the end of January 2012 took place in the Sun X-ray flare class X2. Although the plasma flow in the left side of the light reached Earth space and the impact on the work of some devices.